Have you been surprised by how newsflow gels with price action? It should not if you understand the basic premise of technical analysis that the price action captures everything. Hence, the technical analyst can take investment decision by studying the historical price action. The recent examples from the pharma space reaffirms this basic premise. Price movement is driven by supply-demand. Newsflow, more often than not, tends to coincide with the price reaching key support / resistance levels. To word it differently, pro-money typically use news flow to load-up or sell their holdings.
Do not ask me if pro-money are privy to this newsflow ahead of others? The answer is very apparent and am unwilling to elaborate any further ! Here is a couple of examples from the pharma space where newsflow and price action has been interesting.
In a recent post on Lupin, it was highlighted how bad news (poor earnings in Lupin’s case) drove price lower to a key support in May 2015. The stock gained almost 25% from the lows established post the news-driven low. Let’s now switch to Sun Pharma. The stock has moved up steadily and as always, price rebounded from support. The recent rally has pushed the stock to a key resistance, highlighted in the daily chart below.
And, right at the time when Sun reached the resistance, the company issues a revenue / profit warning yesterday, citing issues relating to the merger of Ranbaxy Laboratories. The Sun Pharma stock has opened with a huge gap down today. But how far will it go down? That is for you to sort out. The only hint I can give is that price will fall to its next support. I would appreciate a few inputs from your regarding where this next support can come by.
The purpose behind the post is to drive home the point that the price does capture all developments pertaining to the stock / instrument concerned. So, believe your charts and trust your analysis.
Note: I do not own shares in Sun Pharma